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Feb 11, 2026
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LONG
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"The ICE and Border Patrol agents were fully funded for... four years with a one big, beautiful bill." Private prison and detention center operators (GEO, CXW) rely heavily on ICE contracts. The market often punishes these stocks during "government shutdown" headlines due to payment fears. Mullin confirms their specific funding source is locked in for years, insulating them from the current DHS budget fight. LONG. The revenue stream is secure regardless of the Friday deadline; sell-offs based on shutdown fears are mispriced. unexpected legislative changes to the 4-year funding bill; broader ESG divestment trends. |
CNBC
Sen. Markwayne Mullin on DHS funding fight: N...
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Feb 11, 2026
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LONG
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"This isn't a full government shutdown. In fact, 97% of the government is fully funded... I think what's likely to happen is that we do a continuing resolution once again." Mainstream headlines are signaling a crisis. However, the actual economic impact is negligible (only 3% of gov unfunded) and a political resolution (CR) is imminent due to scheduled congressional travel (Munich). LONG. Fade the "shutdown" volatility; the macro impact is non-existent. The CR fails to pass, causing short-term sentiment shock. |
CNBC
Sen. Markwayne Mullin on DHS funding fight: N...
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Feb 11, 2026
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WATCH
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"The only thing that the Democrats have shut down right now is our TSA agents... when people started to see those delays at the airport, they really get fed up." While 97% of the government is safe, TSA falls into the 3% "unfunded" bucket. If the CR fails, TSA agents may stage "sick-outs" (as seen in previous shutdowns), causing immediate friction for airlines and travel stocks. Additionally, the unexplained 10-day closure of the El Paso airport adds a layer of idiosyncratic security risk. WATCH. Monitor the Friday deadline closely; if the CR stalls, expect immediate turbulence in airline bookings/operations. CR passes immediately, negating the thesis. |
CNBC
Sen. Markwayne Mullin on DHS funding fight: N...
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